Every year there are players who are completely overrated during the draft process and they end up disappointing in the league. Sometimes these players are top draft picks while other times these are players who sky rocket up draft boards after March madness or one great season.
1. Lonzo Ball- I'm not gonna lie I don't think that Lonzo Ball will be a bust but I would not touch him in the top 5. It would be easy to make the case that Ball could be the number 3 or 4 point guard in this draft and yet he is being projected top 2 in almost every mock draft. Is part of this over hyping due to his father? The short answer is no, but the long answer is he isn't helping. Lavar has claimed that his kid will be better than Steph Curry the first unanimous MVP in NBA history. Maybe his father hasn't seen his sons shooting form but there is no way he will consistently get off clean shots. If Lonzo had elite athleticism and could easily create space to get off that ugly shot then this wouldn't be an issue. However, Lonzo lacks athleticism and struggled to create space to get his shot off at times in college. Players in the NBA are stronger, faster and smarter than 99% of the players he went up against in college. De'aaron Fox an elite athlete absolutely humiliated Ball in the sweet sixteen as he dropped 39 points and limited Ball to 10 points. Lonzo's greatest asset is his basketball IQ and while that helped him to dominate college I'm not sure it’s enough to draft him #2 overall.
2. Dj Wilson - One of the most common ways for players to get overrated is having a huge NCAA/ Conference tournament and this year DJ Wilson did exactly that. While DJ had a great tournament he really didn't have that great of a year. I've consistently watched Michigan over the last three years and before the tournament started I couldn't have told you this kids name. Over the course of the season he only averaged 11 points and 5.3 rebounds in 30 minutes a game. I'm absolutely shocked that he is projected to go in the first round. Personally, I think that he should stay in school for his senior year and prove that he can consistently dominate the college game. He will most likely get drafted this year but I think he will play mostly in the d league or get very limited minutes on an NBA roster.
3. Luke Kennard - We all know that Kennard can shoot but I would personally rank him as the 4th or 5th best NBA prospect on last years Duke team. Frank Jackson, Grayson Allen, Jayson Tatum and Harry Giles all project to be better NBA players than Kennard and yet he is projected to be the second Duke player drafted this year behind Tatum. Yes, I understand that Allen is returning to Duke but I still don't believe Kennard has the talent to be a fringe lottery pick as he is currently projected. Don't get me wrong Kennard has a place in the NBA and can easily become the next Kyle Korver. Back when Kyle Korver was drafted the league was completely different which lead to him being drafted late in the second round. If he was to come out this year (with no previous knowledge of how he would play in the nba) I would take him late in the first round. Fringe lottery players should be players who have massive potential. In my opinion Kennard does not posses this. We know what Kennard is and while he has the potential to be a solid player he does not have the upside to be an elite player.